Lee out of first two

Australia suffered a new setback 48 hours before the first day of the Ashes when Brett Lee, their in-form, bristling and experienced fast bowler, was ruled out of the first two Tests with a rib injury.

The news was such a shock that at first I wondered if the trip to London for a scan was a ploy put together to wrong-foot England; but the news that drifted back to Cardiff was much worse than his six-wicket performance against England Lions at Worcester last week suggested.

Lee is a sunny cricketer and far from the single-minded, inward-looking character like so many of his calling. He has always been interested in the rest of the world and relaxes on long tours, home and abroad, by singing to his own guitar and playing in small groups. The England players were shaken enough by the ruling to send good wishes by way of his special mate Kevin Pietersen.

This is another hammer blow to the Australian side already rebuilding after the retirement of so many stars, with Ricky Ponting criticised at home and lacking runs in this tour and with doubts about the quality of their spin attack.

Ricky Ponting may go into the match with one of the weakest attacks of his 56 Tests as captain, a figure which takes him level with Steve Waugh. Lee's absence will give him an excuse, if he needs it, not to ask England to bat.

He last put a side in at Edgbaston in 2005 when his plot went disastrously wrong because Glenn McGrath was injured just before play began. Ponting has not dared try the same trick again.

Selectors right!

Now the talking has to stop, time for action, team named at 10am and, er, no action at all. Nothing to get one's teeth into, steady as she goes, all's right with the world, why change anything, keep a winning team and, to be honest, as they say in dressing rooms round the world, the selectors have probably got it dead right.

So no big Steve Harmison, a vote of confidence in Graham Onions, much on the shoulders of Stuart Broad and James Anderson and the spinning probably left to Graeme Swann. The batting is in good shape - FOR or Full Of Runs - from No. 1 Andrew Strauss to No. 6, Matt Prior.

I watched as the Australians struggled at Worcester and unless they are playing games they will struggle at Cardiff. I cannot agree with those who suggest Nathan Hauritz is anything but an ordinary off-spinner; he lacks control and spinning power. I suspect they will use four seamers and not even think about spin until the game is slipping out of their control.

I am not even sure this series is going to be the tour de force promoted by the TV commentators and, the sooner everyone puts Ashes 2005 to the back of their minds the sooner England will lay down a solid basis from which to win the trophy again.

England 3-1

Quite suddenly, with the force of a tsunami, the answer was clear. England will beat a weak Australia side, after a struggle in the first three Tests, and recover the Ashes by 3-1.

It has worried me for a week. Good independent judges declared their hands and left us none the wiser. Mickey Arthur, coach of a winning South African side, said it was too close to call but on balance he fancied Australia. Mike Atherton, so fiercely even-handed that it is clear that he has - as he claims - shrugged off his record-breaking stint as captain, found it difficult to predict the result; Michael Vaughan, in a thoughtful piece, said England could win but that they were not favourites.

Until the revelation hit me this morning I could not find a result in logic, the runes nor the statements of the men who will begin the battle on Wednesday in Cardiff.

Thus a stalement. Then I remembered 1985 when a series of minor miracles enabled England to win late in the series on the back of superb batting by the captain Gower, Gooch, Robinson, Gatting and Botham; by the fast bowling of Botham, still a fearsome competitor; and Richard Ellison, briefly the finest bowler of fast medium outswing in the world.

Australia, without Chappell, Marsh and Lillee who had retired, with Thomson 35 during the final Test, and with Border settling into the captaincy reluctantly and grumpily, had only McDermott to confront England. Lawson faded, Holland's leg spin was briefly dominant at Lord's - where Australia won as usual - and the wicket-keeping of Wayne Phillips was so confused that he later dreamed Wisden might alter the figures of the bowlers off whom he had spilled too many chances.

England grabbed hold of the Ashes after one bizarre moment at Edgbaston when, after a long break for rain - while such stars as Gower, Edmonds and Gooch reached back to their childhood via Watch With Mother (so Edmonds told me) - Gower caught Phillips off Lamb's boot. You can still find a fighting opponent in any Nullabar bar by declaring that was legitimately out; Border said the batsman should have had the benefit of the doubt; today it would have been 'decided' by 10,000 TV replays.

No such concept existed then but it, and the clearing weather, enabled me to write that God must be an Englishman. By the end of the sixth Test England were so much in the ascendency that we assumed they might go on to triumph in the West Indies. Instead they lost 5-0.

Those of us who still believe in that God is partisan will expect Him to intervene as he did 24 years ago and return the world's tiniest trophy to the hands of another fair-haired England, captain Andrew Strauss, backed up by the strong batting of Cook, Bopara, Pietersen, Prior and Flintoff, also still a fearsome bowler; plus a constantly shifting mix of Broad, Anderson, Onions, Sidebottom, Harmison, Swann, Rashid and Panesar. I hope Bresnan will play the part of Ellison.

They say you never learn anything from history; I have tried. We will soon know if I have learnt the right lessons. Just five days to go.

Jimmy's riddle

The cafe. The veteran, the daft lad and I. In agreement for once.

"You know there is something everyone in this country can do to bring back the Ashes," I say.

"What," says the daft lad, absorbed in drinking his tea latte. "Pray, burn incense, join the British Legion?

"No," says the veteran, "I know what he's on about. Stop talking about how lovely everything was in 2005." We've been talking about it."

"Right," I say. "That's history, done with, lets move on. But this week at least one paper has gone on about 2005 as if the game was invented that year. A big piece every day."

"I know," says the lad, "my dad kept going on about 1981, and Headingley, and Brearley and Botham. Just the same. We do love to live the the past, us."

"So," I say, all strategic. "Lets make a pact. No 2005, no Flintoff, no Pratt's run-out, not talk of the bad behaviour at No.10 Downing Street. And, by the way, unless I have a brainwave, this series is too close to call. So no bets all right."

The daft lad grins. "I want to back Jimmy Anderson to be top wicket-taker, both sides. He's all right is Jimmy. He says to me - I' like 70 not - 'my yorker is the key ball' but I take no notice and next ball he hits me on top of the helmet with a bouncer. Still I go on past hundred and he says 'you took no notice of me saying about the yorker' but then he bowls me one and I block it. No, he's all right is Jimmy."

"No he's not," says the waitress. "He comes in here and says to me, cheeky like, 'Is it you that has been making that young lad drink tea latte and serving him slops.' Then he runs out. At least I think it was Jimmy Anderson."

"Rubbish," says the daft lad. "You wouldn't pull a trick like that!"

"No," the rest of us say in chorus. "Cause she wouldn't"

Why Wales?

You may be interested to know that Cardiff will be the 100th venue when the first Test begins in seven days.

I am still not clear - apart from the money, I mean - why the city was given the most important Test of this summer anyway. I know Welsh men and women who support Glamorgan wherever they play but I wonder if they will turn up for this match. I would also like to know how the pitch will play and I worry that if England lose the match they might be 2-0 down by the end of the second Test.

England never win at Lord's against Australia; well, once last century

I guess a lot of people were concerned about the choice of Melbourne in 1877 when the first Test was staged on what old pictures suggest was an open field with one small stand. Of course it was not called The First Test until later.

But you would think that with all the tradition, all that history and all those records the first Test of 2009 might have been played at Lord's.

Unsteady Freddie

Greg here,

All right, guys, so you have had your bit of fun with me and the switch hitter in Brighton and you have gone tut-tut every time Andrew Symonds has been mentioned by name.

So what about Andrew Flintoff, great bowler, once a fantastic hitter, wonderful fielder and - how can I put this without causing the Royal family to throw a six - a lover of fine wines. Just like the dear old Queen no doubt.

He is, to our certain knowledge, Brahms and Cysts at a fielding practice in Oz, he is under the weather on a pirate pedalo in the Caribbean and now he misses a stand-to-attention-and-pray for-the-lost-soldiers trip to a World War I battlefield. I almost tut-tutted myself.

However, the England captain, says it is not an issue and that it has been dealt with "and now we move forward."

True it is not an issue if Andrew Strauss says it is not but apparently it is an issue that Samit Patel is overweight, that Michael Vaughan is too old and out of form and that Monty Panesar cannot buy a wicket.

So the only issue is whether Flintoff can bat, bowl and field and drink. Strauss says he will drop him if he goes for it too heavily during the Ashes. After a hat trick or a century? Even if England have won the last three Tests? Even if he is last man standing?

Better get it sorted soon, my cobbers, or you are going to have a big issue long before the little urn is raised aloft.

All the best sports,

Greg Orry

PS Who got the idea of the visit to a battlefield? Don't I remember the Aussies did something similar a little while back? What do they say about imitation and flattery?

View from Down Under

It is always interesting to know how the folks back home regard a touring side:

Jeff Thomson is in no doubt; he has never been a fan of Ricky Ponting as a captain and he spells it out. Those of you who have never been Down Under may not be surprised at the strength of the language but this extract is taken from the ABC website. ABC is the Oz equivalent of the BBC and always known as The ABC.

"I thought Ricky was crap when he was first captain in 2004 and nothing much has improved since then," said 58-year-old Thomson at a lunch to launch the Ashes. "I'm not the only one who thinks that. I've always bagged him and everyone at home thinks he's s*** at the captaincy.

"He's a great player but captaincy is a totally different thing. I couldn't believe it when he'd been picked as captain. There was no-one else to pick but Ponting still had no experience. He'd only captained one side ever before. How did he get to lead Australia with that sort of experience?
He was in a side that had very good players and now he's got a side that has average players.

"The choices he makes, his field settings and the things he does are never right. England have the edge in the captaincy department. But while England have a better captain, Australia have a better line-up."

Thanks for letting us know, Tommo. Perhaps we have half a chance after all and that is a tonic seven days before the Ashes.