England 3-1

Quite suddenly, with the force of a tsunami, the answer was clear. England will beat a weak Australia side, after a struggle in the first three Tests, and recover the Ashes by 3-1.

It has worried me for a week. Good independent judges declared their hands and left us none the wiser. Mickey Arthur, coach of a winning South African side, said it was too close to call but on balance he fancied Australia. Mike Atherton, so fiercely even-handed that it is clear that he has - as he claims - shrugged off his record-breaking stint as captain, found it difficult to predict the result; Michael Vaughan, in a thoughtful piece, said England could win but that they were not favourites.

Until the revelation hit me this morning I could not find a result in logic, the runes nor the statements of the men who will begin the battle on Wednesday in Cardiff.

Thus a stalement. Then I remembered 1985 when a series of minor miracles enabled England to win late in the series on the back of superb batting by the captain Gower, Gooch, Robinson, Gatting and Botham; by the fast bowling of Botham, still a fearsome competitor; and Richard Ellison, briefly the finest bowler of fast medium outswing in the world.

Australia, without Chappell, Marsh and Lillee who had retired, with Thomson 35 during the final Test, and with Border settling into the captaincy reluctantly and grumpily, had only McDermott to confront England. Lawson faded, Holland's leg spin was briefly dominant at Lord's - where Australia won as usual - and the wicket-keeping of Wayne Phillips was so confused that he later dreamed Wisden might alter the figures of the bowlers off whom he had spilled too many chances.

England grabbed hold of the Ashes after one bizarre moment at Edgbaston when, after a long break for rain - while such stars as Gower, Edmonds and Gooch reached back to their childhood via Watch With Mother (so Edmonds told me) - Gower caught Phillips off Lamb's boot. You can still find a fighting opponent in any Nullabar bar by declaring that was legitimately out; Border said the batsman should have had the benefit of the doubt; today it would have been 'decided' by 10,000 TV replays.

No such concept existed then but it, and the clearing weather, enabled me to write that God must be an Englishman. By the end of the sixth Test England were so much in the ascendency that we assumed they might go on to triumph in the West Indies. Instead they lost 5-0.

Those of us who still believe in that God is partisan will expect Him to intervene as he did 24 years ago and return the world's tiniest trophy to the hands of another fair-haired England, captain Andrew Strauss, backed up by the strong batting of Cook, Bopara, Pietersen, Prior and Flintoff, also still a fearsome bowler; plus a constantly shifting mix of Broad, Anderson, Onions, Sidebottom, Harmison, Swann, Rashid and Panesar. I hope Bresnan will play the part of Ellison.

They say you never learn anything from history; I have tried. We will soon know if I have learnt the right lessons. Just five days to go.